Head analysis does not consider either the skill level or the
confidence of the person who is being asked to make the shot(s). Neither the
score nor the ends to play is usually considered in these hypothetical
situations. The bias of bowls and the speed of the green are left out.
Consequently there will always be disagreement over what should be played.
Readers should be inspired to share their own thinking in the Comments.
Four different head positions are analyzed assuming that the front
ditch is, in turn, in the North(N), South (S), West (W)and East(E) of the diagram.
The different orientations create four different tactical situations. The Skips
are designated as White and Cross. Their bowls are respectively empty orange circles
and purple circles with a cross on them. The small solid orange circle is the
jack. The jack is on the center line two meters from the ditch. None of White’s bowls are touchers. White holds three shots. Each side has a bowl remaining but Cross has the last shot.
North
The ditch is a meter behind the Cross bowls. Taken in
this direction this is a problem set by Lachlan
Tighe who describes 15 different
options for White. The positioning is deceptive. There are few locations the
jack can realistically move short of the line formed by the three Cross bowls where
Cross can score even two. The danger arises if the jack is taken anywhere past
these bowls up to and including the ditch. A drive or running shot that touches
the jack can then score three or four. The best defense is a bowl by White from
the left with the primary objective to move White’s leftmost bowl back at least
into the line and splitting the Cross bowls. If the shot is missed on the left the
bowl could end up grouped with the two Cross bowls on the left which provides
some cover. Follow the link to see all
the possibilities without any recommended choice.
South
South
White can expect cross to drive into the pocket of White’s
two rightmost bowls and the jack white should draw into a location in front of
the jack and in the line of Cross’s bowls. Ideally this bowl will count but if
it is a bit short that won’t matter.
West
Cross will have to execute a long trail to get more than
two. Draw from the left. Since you are up three, if you err be a touch wide. White will be
happy to end up in Cross’s draw. Let Cross be the one to push up his own short
bowl on the right, don’t risk doing it for him
East
White should try to rest Cross’s backmost bowl, delivering
from the left. White should not draw behind the jack from the right. You
do not want to provide a shoulder which could give Cross a wick in with his
last bowl or even a bowl on which Cross can chop and lie from the right for
second shot. Cross could be down four when he comes to the mat.
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