Bowls Strategy and Tactics: Does Shot Selection Depend Upon Skill Level?

I watch Youtube lawn bowling videos trying to learn from the shot selections made by the best players. Whether this is useful however depends, I think, upon the answer to the question, “Is correct shot selection dependent upon skill level?” That is to say,“ If I can only draw within an average two feet of a target, should I try the same shot as say Paul Foster who can bowl on average within 3 inches?”

Tacticians who write books tell us that for each shot we contemplate we should consider the risk/reward ratio. If this is true and it does make sense. the answer hinges on the answer to a second question: “Are there bowls positions where the risk/reward ratio changes depending upon the skill level of the bowler?” This latter question is easier to answer. I can fabricate a simple  situation that will make this point clearly.

I have the last bowl. The jack is in the ditch. My opponent sits four. One counter is four feet from the ditch. Three more counting bowls are eight feet from the ditch. Because I could easily accidentally ditch my bowl and go down four if I try to get shot (since my average error is two feet), I should simply stay out of the ditch and make sure I have second so I will only go down one. A professional, who can bowl within inches of his target, can play to get shot without undue risk.  So yes- risk/reward ratios for each tactical situation depend upon the bowler’s precision.

Does this mean an average bowler can learn nothing from the tactical choices made by a champion? No. The factors that are to be considered are the same for both. The terms in the weighing equation are the same but the weight (the likelihood or importance) of each term is different depending upon skill level. We should be able to enumerate to ourselves the different considerations that the pros are thinking about. We should then have a good chance to understand their selection of shot so long as we understand their level of precision. We should also have a fair idea where the selection the champion chooses will differ from what we ought to try in the same situation.

The video commentator will often give the viewer a ‘heads up’ where the professional’s selection differs from what a player of lower class might choose. How often have I heard something like, “This is a situation where only Marshall would back himself to draw the shot.” In other words, if you are an ordinary mortal, don’t try this!