Draw or Drive at Lawn Bowls: The Tactical Decision

There is an old saying: draw for dough, drive for show.

I think that this is saying is that those who win the tournaments use the drive shot less frequently than those who do not. That is, those who drive most often end up out of the money.

But this may be confusing cause and effect. Those who drive most often do so because they are already in trouble. They are already most at risk of having a multiple count against them or losing outright in the final ends; that is- being out of the money. The winners who eventually get that ‘dough’ are most likely the ones threatening to score a big count.

To know when it is tactically wise to drive in singles or as the skip in other contests, (in team games you don't bowl with weight unless the skip calls for it), you need to know some statistics about your own draw accuracy. I use the median of medians test to measure this. For example, for me, only one bowl in three come less than 52 inches from the jack. From this, I calculate that only one bowl in six will be within 37 inches. This is pretty bad; but hey, I’m still a novice playing on a fast green.

Anyway, one bowl sitting beside the jack can present a cross-sectional target as large as 17 inches. Furthermore, with a hard drive one does not need to worry about accuracy with respect to weight. How hard your bowl crashes into the forward ditch doesn’t matter. Consequently, the problem is reduced from a two-dimensional problem for that draw for shot: correct line and correct weight; or the one-dimensional problem: correct line for the drive. Which do I think I have a better chance of achieving: driving and passing within 8 ½ inches (either side) of the center of my target one bowl out of six; or drawing within 37 inches of the jack one out of six? Assuming a bit of instruction and practice in the basics of driving, the latter would be my statistical choice. Remember most people drive faster than necessary and so lose accuracy. But also remember, there are other tactical considerations because the two shots' purposes are different. Generally, drawing is to score while  driving is to save.

So:

1. For a promising drive, the target should be at least as large as a jack-high bowl separated by 5  inches (the cross-section of my bowl) from the jack.

2. You must almost certainly have the prospect to save at least 1, usually more, if you hit anywhere on the target.

3. You should have a second or third in the head which you are very unlikely to hit with your drive.

My conclusion is that, so long as you have been taught something about driving, you are likely to use it properly more when you are just a 3-5 year novice, because your median draw shot is relatively inaccurate. As your draw ability improves, driving will become tactically less often appropriate. Put another way, as you become more likely to win dough, you will be less frequently in situations where driving is the statistically correct tactic.