A sports strategy is a plan that can be made before a sports competition begins. It is not determined by the fine details of a particular match situation. This latter is the business of tactics.
I propose that a team ( let us consider a pairs team ) decide that when it has possession of the mat during a match, it will place the mat at the closer hog line and deliver a jack that gets centred on the forward T.
The end is played tactically from that point on. If the end is won, the same strategy is repeated in the next end. If the end is lost, the side attempts to recover the mat and restart its strategy. The strategy tries to force the opponents to play a game with a fixed minimum jack length and a dead bowl line 2 meters behind the jack.
The idea upon which the strategy is based is that there will be an advantage in playing a game the details of which your side has practiced much more than the opposition and which has some features distinctly different from the standard bowls contest.
To be successful in the execution, the lead must be accomplished at rolling the jack reproducibly 21-23 meters. This seems like a tall order, but it is a precise challenge that can be practiced by borrowing a box of 16 jacks from the clubhouse.
Why should this strategy work?
In Canada, the minimum jack length is 21 meters; in most other countries, the minimum distance is 23 meters. First, few other teams practice bowling either 21 or 23-meter ends from a mat at the hog line.
According to bowls.co.uk, “At the beginning of the first end, the mat is placed lengthwise on the centre line of the rink, the back edge to be four feet from the ditch.” I can find no official evidence for this purported rule. There is no such requirement in the Laws of Sport of Bowls, Crystal Mark 4. Consequently, this is no longer required. The lead in the first end can place the mat anywhere from T to the closest hog line. The strategy proposed can be applied from end 1, so if the toss is won, you can take the mat and move it forward!
What is so different about playing this short game?
The re-spot position is identical to the initial spot for the jack. Putting the jack cleanly out of bounds will get it returned to the position from which it came!
Knocking the jack out of bounds is extremely unlikely; unless given a sharply glancing blow, the jack will end up live in the ditch.
The team using this strategy should have learned to deliver the more accurate running bowl (since this is a more accurate delivery than a drive, with the best chance of ditching the jack), and this shot also provides the best chance to drive an opposing shot bowl into the ditch, where it will be dead.
If the jack makes it to the ditch, the area available for the opposition to draw their own shot bowl is only half as big as usual. This is because the available area is only a semicircle around the jack. When the jack is in the ditch, placing a shot bowl behind the jack is not available.
It is almost guaranteed that some deliveries will finish in the ditch as dead bowls. If the opposition does manage to deliver the shot bowl, your side has available the running shot to cancel it.
The probability of a rebounding bowl is much greater, and a rebounding toucher is live: 17.2.3.
The probability of a jack rebounding onto the rink is much higher, and a rebounding jack is live: 21.1.
Many more dispositions of bowls near the jack will constitute a target for a running shot because the depth of the head can be no more than 2 meters, so the gaps between bowls, or between a bowl and the jack, will be effectively smaller. A running shot is more likely to hit something.
Paul Foster bowls all his deliveries with the form required to deliver a runner; no backswing and a big forward step. In a famous open singles match, he came from behind in the last two ends by moving the mat up to the hog line and delivering a minimum length jack. You can see this starting at about the 1:17:02 mark in the online video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VEGkkHgZ6o